Q4 is historically the best quarter for digital asset prices. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin averages a quarterly return of 77% and a median return of 47%, with a positive-to-negative return ratio of 8-to-4.
If 2025 is to match historical averages though December will have to be stellar given that Q4 returns to date are currently -20%, after the price slide that began in October accelerated in November. This weakness was apparent from the get-go and it reflected a confluence of factors.
The accelerated price slide in November, evidenced by the 23% monthly decline in our benchmark large cap Top10 Crypto CTI, suggests that historical Q4 bullishness is facing significant headwinds in the current cycle.